It is important to keep in mind that, as we reach more than a score of Democratic candidates for President in 2020, the outcome is not as fractured as it appears.  First and foremost, on the minds of many Democrats is how to win the election, and most, if not all, will put aside ideological impurity when President Trump is the option.  While nominating someone like Bernie Sanders would hurt with moderate voters, his candidacy appears to have a high floor and a low ceiling, so it is unlikely that he will emerge.

While we are on that subject, I find the media’s fascination with the divisions in the Democratic Party to be breathless.  Actually, this happens all of the time.  In their rush to label everything and everyone, they should listen again to what Mayor Pete had to say when he pointed out that the county in which he lived had voted for Obama, Trump, Pence (for Governor) and him (for Mayor).  Thus, these disagreements, while real, are just part of what usually happens in American politics.

Meanwhile, I believe the candidates that have the best chance to defeat Trump will not fall into the trap of fighting with him.  Rather, being amused by his mendacity (that word again) and self-promotion would be more effective.  Pointing out that he is not used to repeat customers, so he can short change them, doesn’t work well with the world which tends to hang around, unlike the contractors and buyers he has stiffed over the years.  l suspect being laughed at would be more effective and enrage him more which would probably delight his base but repulse everyone else.

Then, there is Joe Biden.  I really wish he would not run.  He could be the General Chair for whoever the nominee is and wind up as Secretary of State which would be good for everyone.  I fear he will not win the nomination and have to go through the humiliation of the campaign, losing for the third time.

It is also best to remember the national polls we are seeing have little value.  Polls in Iowa are harder because it is a caucus state.  New Hampshire is a fickle state and an open primary so with no real Republican primary, the voters can all vote in the Democratic race which may change the outcome. My sense of things is that Harris, Beto and Mayor Pete are the likely survivors of this show at least into the fall.

By the way, more bad news for Biden is Terry McAulliffe is going to run, further eroding Biden’s financial base as well as establishment support.  One thing for sure, having known Terry since he was in his 20’s, his campaign will have the most fun while it is alive.  More later…