It looks like speaker Kevin McCarthy has a terrible dilemma he must confront. He went ahead and (barely) passed a bill through the House, which included a whole series of cutbacks on a variety of programs that are individually popular. Then, he attached it to the increase in the debt ceiling that is necessary for the United States to continue to borrow money.

The problem for McCarthy is that, now, he probably cannot bring to the floor of the House a bill that would encompass some of those spending cuts in a separate bill and a clean bill to increase the debt ceiling which, in many ways, is the logical result of a compromise. Unfortunately, for him, his caucus will not allow a clean bill to be brought to the floor without creating a challenge to McCarthy for his very speakership.

You may recall that McCarthy, in securing the votes he needed from his Republican caucus, promised to allow a motion to vacate the chair. In effect, that means he can be removed as Speaker by any one Member. If McCarthy chooses to bring a clean debt ceiling increase, he will undoubtedly face such a challenge from some of the crazier people in his already crazed caucus – that is, Members who genuinely believe that if the United States defaults on its debts, it will not have the catastrophic effect most people predict. So, for McCarthy, there is no good option.

Meanwhile, for the Democrats, if they truly want to move this forward (which any responsible governing party would want to do), they will have to figure out some form of spending cuts that will probably be in a tandem bill along with a clean debt ceiling increase.

Whatever happens, the results should be interesting, and McCarthy’s very survival as Speaker is very likely at stake. Stay tuned.