With the new year upon us it seems only appropriate to begin writing again.  Of course, we have impeachment, the race in the Democratic Party for President and now the possibility of a new war in the Middle East.  Welcome to 2020 in the era of Trumpian dystopia.

First on impeachment.  When the Federal government was chasing Al Capone, they could never convict him on murder, drugs, prostitution overlord, or any of these obvious, yet hard to prove, charges in courts controlled by the mob.  So, what happened was they got him on income tax evasion.  It was hardly his most serious offense, but it did get him out of circulation and allowed an effort to clean things up.

In the same way, the various offenses committed by our President have been difficult to prove in a way that could be seen as crimes instead of the flouting of conventional standards of decent behavior.  So, the actions involving Ukraine were seized upon and used as the basis to move forward.  It is barely disputable that this wasn’t a quid pro quo, nor is it deniable that a serious threat from the Russians faced Ukraine and the withholding of aid already approved by the Congress made their position even more tenuous.  What is obvious is that no other President in recent memory would have been impeached for this action.  It is further obvious that no other President would have done this. So, the House took what he gave them and did their duty.  As to what is an impeachable offense, I would refer people back to then House Minority Leader, Gerald Ford, who during an investigation of Supreme Court Justice Abe Fortas, “an impeachable offense is anything the House of Representatives determines it is.”

Now on to the Democrats.  With the early money reposts it appears that Sanders and Warren are in for the long haul.  That is good news to the non-left wing of the party.  If neither can consolidate their wing, they will allow someone more moderate to have a chance to do just that.  Biden continues to have the most to gain and lose in Iowa.  If he does well, he can survive New Hampshire and Nevada, win in South Carolina and be the leader going into Super Tuesday when 14 states vote.  But if he falters and finishes behind Bernie, Warren, Pete, and maybe Klobuchar and even Steyer, he will find the following weeks very difficult and almost impossible to raise the money he willed in order to compete.

Pete needs a very good showing in Iowa to have the momentum he will need for New Hampshire and beyond.  Should he falter, he will not have a logical place where he can win a state to create the needed momentum necessary to sustain his impressive fund raising to date.  Klobuchar is all in in Iowa.  If she doesn’t do well there, her campaign is over, as is that of Cory Booker.  I expect Andrew Yang will hang around for a while as the “Yang Gang” will continue to send money to support his unconventional candidacy.  Steyer can continue as longs he wants as his personal wealth will allow him to do so and he has shown some movement in all of the four early states.

Best guess as of today is that Bernie squeaks out a win in Iowa over Pete and Warren with Biden a distant fourth in a cluster with Klobachar, Steyer and Yang.  But wait until tomorrow because things may be different.