I have returned to this format after some time off to reflect on what is happening to our country.  I did write an OpEd piece for the Miami Herald with a colleague regarding why we think Biden will win which is a more restrained version of my analysis (after all, I did have a co-author), but essentially I think the election will not be particularly close.

I believe that the President is making a fundamental bet against the essential decency of the American people.  While H.L. Mencken may have stated that “no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people,” or words to that effect, when it comes to fundamental values, I would bet on Americans doing the right thing.

What I mean by that is that Trump has predicated his entire political career upon the concept that whatever goes wrong is someone else’s fault.  If you join him in the degrading of those groups (e.g. Mexicans, NATO, China, World Health Organization, Democrats, etc.), you will feel better and not care what this type of characterization means for them.  Trump believes that since he cares almost exclusively about himself, you will join him in his approach to America and its problems.  Thus, the idea of shared sacrifice, tolerance for dissenting views, community responsibility, etc., are really for suckers and he is going to make sure you aren’t a sucker any longer.

It is true that he is not alone in this approach.  Many on the extreme left have a similar elixir even if the glass they drink from is of a different shape.  Elements of the media continue to attack Trump over specious things. He cannot escape the attacks that began at the beginning of this presidency and persist today.  One might argue that his behavior continues to justify it, but the media’s response gives credence in Republican circles to claims by his supporters that no matter what he does he is attacked.

I believe that this brand of division will be soundly rejected by a majority of Americans.  Particularly at the time when one sees Governor Cuomo present the state of the pandemic daily in a calm, rational, informed manner and then hours later sees the President’s efforts to appear informed and articulate.  Someone told me recently that it was unfortunate that a President who speaks so much has such a limited vocabulary.

Oh well, let’s break out the Clorox and drink up!